Home values in LA, San Francisco, Portland, Seattle and Denver, are beyond the pre-recession prices, and people are noticing. Salt Lake City is rarely mentioned in any of these articles, but we are also beyond pre-recession housing values, and have been for a few years.
Some predict that some of these markets will level off over the next year, due to the lack of affordable housing, increasing interest rates, personal income not keeping up with inflation in the housing market, and as a result, people being priced out of the market, causing a decrease in demand.
In the table below I present the big picture from 2007 to 2018, in Salt Lake County and Salt Lake City, as well as all the individual cities in Salt Lake County and the neighborhoods of Salt Lake City.
The first four columns show the 2nd quarter median values for a single family home. There are four years that I think are significant, 2007 (the peak of the previous boom), 2011 (the bottom of the bust), 2015 (the average year that homes returned to 2007 values), and the current year, 2018.
The column marked “Exceed ’07“, is the first year that the median housing value, exceeded the 2007 values for that specific city or neighborhood.
The three columns to the right of the table, show the percent decline in median value from 2007 to 2011, the increase in median value from 2011 to 2018, and the big picture from 2007 to 2018.
Please note that these numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Also, the numbers for Bluffdale and Emigration Canyon are hard to interpret due to the wide range of prices and scarcity of sales in Emigration, and the change in post recession housing stock in Bluffdale, which has added a ton of affordable condos and townhomes.
from 2007-2018 & Percent Changes
($ are Median Price of a Single Family Homes X $1,000)
| 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | 2018 | Exceed ’07 | 2007-11 | 2011-18 | 2007-18 | |
| Salt Lake Co. | $256 | $202 | $276 | $358 | 2015 | -21% | 77% | 40% |
| Salt Lake City | $247 | $195 | $281 | $370 | 2014 | -21% | 90% | 50% |
| NE Burbs | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | 2018 | Exceed ’07 | 2007-11 | 2011-18 | 2007-18 |
| Canyon Rim | $306 | $225 | $315 | $436 | 2015 | -26% | 94% | 42% |
| East Mill Creek | $345 | $231 | $342 | $490 | 2016 | -33% | 112% | 42% |
| Holladay | $414 | $304 | $365 | $575 | 2016 | -27% | 89% | 39% |
| Mill Creek | $278 | $184 | $278 | $365 | 2015 | -34% | 98% | 31% |
| Murray | $262 | $180 | $260 | $320 | 2016 | -31% | 78% | 22% |
| Olympus Cove | $439 | $390 | $594 | $661 | 2014 | -11% | 69% | 51% |
| South Salt Lake | $225 | $171 | $180 | $294 | 2016 | -24% | 72% | 31% |
| SE Burbs | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | 2018 | Exceed ’07 | 2007-11 | 2011-18 | 2007-18 |
| Cottonwood Hts | $318 | $257 | $352 | $462 | 2015 | -19% | 80% | 45% |
| Draper | $439 | $369 | $419 | $513 | 2016 | -16% | 39% | 17% |
| Midvale | $215 | $165 | $232 | $305 | 2015 | -23% | 85% | 42% |
| Sandy | $299 | $221 | $296 | $400 | 2016 | -26% | 81% | 34% |
| NW Burbs | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | 2018 | Exceed ’07 | 2007-11 | 2011-18 | 2007-18 |
| Kearns | $169 | $115 | $180 | $236 | 2015 | -32% | 105% | 40% |
| Magna | $185 | $123 | $177 | $254 | 2016 | -34% | 107% | 37% |
| Taylorsville | $208 | $155 | $220 | $283 | 2015 | -25% | 83% | 36% |
| West Valley City | $203 | $138 | $200 | $269 | 2016 | -32% | 95% | 33% |
| SW Burbs | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | 2018 | Exceed ’07 | 2007-11 | 2011-18 | 2007-18 |
| Bluffdale | $488 | $350 | $440 | $411 | Inconclusive | -28% | 17% | -16% |
| Herriman | $316 | $265 | $314 | $406 | 2014 | -16% | 53% | 28% |
| Riverton | $329 | $240 | $305 | $403 | 2017 | -27% | 68% | 22% |
| South Jordan | $356 | $279 | $360 | $440 | 2015 | -22% | 58% | 24% |
| West Jordan | $250 | $185 | $255 | $321 | 2015 | -26% | 74% | 28% |
| East SLCity | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | 2018 | Exceed ’07 | 2007-11 | 2011-18 | 2007-18 |
| Emigration | $377 | $865 | $550 | $552 | Inconclusive | 129% | -36% | 46% |
| 15th & 15th | $390 | $311 | $406 | $538 | 2014 | -20% | 73% | 38% |
| Harvard Yale | $485 | $360 | $534 | $693 | 2014 | -26% | 93% | 43% |
| Highland Park | $300 | $234 | $300 | $414 | 2014 | -22% | 77% | 38% |
| St Mary’s | $574 | $400 | $521 | $682 | 2017 | -30% | 71% | 19% |
| Sugar House | $325 | $260 | $334 | $465 | 2014 | -20% | 79% | 43% |
| CentralSLCity | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | 2018 | Exceed ’07 | 2007-11 | 2011-18 | 2007-18 |
| Avenues | $378 | $340 | $470 | $590 | 2014 | -10% | 74% | 56% |
| Capitol Hill | $265 | $194 | $224 | $360 | 2014 | -27% | 86% | 36% |
| Central City SLC | $213 | $174 | $240 | $308 | 2014 | -18% | 77% | 45% |
| Liberty Wells | $211 | $183 | $229 | $330 | 2014 | -13% | 80% | 56% |
| 9th & 9th | $390 | $292 | $343 | $465 | 2014 | -25% | 59% | 19% |
| U of U | $296 | $226 | $306 | $419 | 2015 | -24% | 85% | 42% |
| West SLCity | 2007 | 2011 | 2015 | 2018 | Exceed ’07 | 2007-11 | 2011-18 | 2007-18 |
| Glendale | $135 | $86 | $160 | $230 | 2014 | -36% | 167% | 70% |
| Poplar Grove | $131 | $78 | $163 | $210 | 2014 | -40% | 169% | 60% |
| Rose Park | $171 | $106 | $181 | $266 | 2015 | -38% | 151% | 56% |
If you look at the overall increase in the median value of a single family home in Salt Lake County, from 2011 to 2018, values have increased 77% during that seven year period, from $202,000 to $358,000. This is equal to an annual compounded increase of 8.5%.
However, if you look at the big picture from 2007 to 2018, for all homes in Salt Lake County, the median value is up 40%, from $256,000 to $358,000, which is an annual compounded increase of 3.1% over that eleven year period. Salt Lake City is up 3.75% for the same period
According to Freddie Mac, normal appreciation for a single family home in the United States from 1968-2018, is an average annual compounded rate of 5.0%. If you look at 1978-2018, that number is 3.9%.
So since 2011, the appreciation in the median home value of a single family home in Salt Lake has far exceed the national average, but overall since 2007, the rate of appreciation is less than the national average.
Another thing to consider is the 30-year mortgage rate in 2007 compared to 2018. In July 2007, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.7% (Per Freddie Mac) which works out to $645/month for every $100,000 borrowed. In August 2018, the rate was at 4.55%, which works out to $510/month for every $100k, 21% less than 2007.
I believe we’re probably well past the half way point of our local real estate boom, nothing lasts forever, but for right now, housing inventory remains low, buyer demand is high, and the price of building materials has significantly increased, along with the price of labor and land, and I believe that our boom will continue into 2019.
I mentioned the national real estate market above, so here’s a quick comparison between the Median home values in June 2018, for cities in the western U.S, compared to Salt Lake.
- San Jose, CA: $1,287,600
- San Francisco: $953,600
- LA/Long Beach/Anaheim: $646,300
- San Diego: $583,700
- Seattle: $455,600
- Sacramento: $400,100
- Denver: $397,700
- Portland: $391,200
- Salt Lake City: $370,000
- Salt Lake County: $358,000
- Las Vegas: $264,300
- Phoenix: $254,700
If you have any questions about buying or selling real estate in and around Salt Lake County, wonder what your home is worth, need a contractor referral, or have a friend that needs help buying or selling, please contact me. I’ve been a local Realtor since 1999, and I educate my clients on the market and process.
Kevin Coyle
Realtor Broker MBA CRS
SLC Homes
M: (801) 243-0699
Kevin@SLCHomeBuyer.com
